New Seat Details - Isle of Wight West

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Isle of Wight West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	16,422	53.5%
LAB	6,733	21.9%
Green	5,190	16.9%
LIB	1,012	3.3%
UKIP	716	2.3%
MIN	606	2.0%
CON Majority	9,689	31.6%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Isle of Wight West: Map

List of old seats forming part of Isle of Wight West

Old seat: Isle of Wight

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Isle of Wight, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Isle of Wight				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Isle of Wight	Arreton and Newchurch	3,007	Isle of Wight East	1,135	338	39	57	349	0	43	0	1,961
Isle of Wight	Binstead and Fishbourne	2,627	Isle of Wight East	930	330	37	56	330	0	43	0	1,726
Isle of Wight	Brading, St Helens and Bembridge	5,930	Isle of Wight East	1,991	750	80	125	709	0	110	0	3,765
Isle of Wight	Carisbrooke	2,548	Isle of Wight West	1,043	332	56	24	278	0	33	0	1,766
Isle of Wight	Central Wight	2,758	Isle of Wight West	1,066	246	30	42	405	0	18	0	1,807
Isle of Wight	Chale, Niton and Whitwell	2,271	Isle of Wight West	921	273	23	35	208	0	20	0	1,480
Isle of Wight	Cowes Medina	2,874	Isle of Wight West	1,036	600	93	32	417	0	49	0	2,227
Isle of Wight	Cowes North	2,393	Isle of Wight West	985	282	60	43	263	0	26	0	1,659
Isle of Wight	Cowes South and Northwood	2,867	Isle of Wight West	1,254	345	62	28	317	0	41	0	2,047
Isle of Wight	Cowes West and Gurnard	2,973	Isle of Wight West	1,018	367	71	27	351	0	53	0	1,887
Isle of Wight	East Cowes	2,944	Isle of Wight East	982	451	188	63	382	0	39	0	2,105
Isle of Wight	Freshwater North	2,148	Isle of Wight West	816	268	27	40	203	0	28	0	1,382
Isle of Wight	Freshwater South	2,421	Isle of Wight West	789	329	42	47	286	0	45	0	1,538
Isle of Wight	Godshill and Wroxall	2,517	Isle of Wight East	863	392	42	61	342	0	46	0	1,746
Isle of Wight	Havenstreet, Ashey and Haylands	2,685	Isle of Wight East	911	399	157	55	337	0	38	0	1,897
Isle of Wight	Lake North	2,785	Isle of Wight East	822	782	45	57	290	0	16	0	2,012
Isle of Wight	Lake South	2,881	Isle of Wight East	935	439	41	62	320	0	37	0	1,834
Isle of Wight	Nettlestone and Seaview	2,427	Isle of Wight East	734	236	115	44	234	0	22	0	1,385
Isle of Wight	Newport Central	2,840	Isle of Wight West	1,008	599	63	56	341	0	43	0	2,110
Isle of Wight	Newport East	2,669	Isle of Wight West	577	773	43	47	248	0	23	0	1,711
Isle of Wight	Newport North	2,384	Isle of Wight West	893	453	56	48	286	0	30	0	1,766
Isle of Wight	Newport South	2,580	Isle of Wight West	1,172	475	69	30	337	0	42	0	2,125
Isle of Wight	Newport West	2,460	Isle of Wight West	962	359	59	52	300	0	30	0	1,762
Isle of Wight	Parkhurst	2,292	Isle of Wight West	968	436	186	67	360	0	35	0	2,052
Isle of Wight	Ryde East	2,763	Isle of Wight East	879	463	188	32	346	0	62	0	1,970
Isle of Wight	Ryde North East	2,546	Isle of Wight East	859	519	53	53	317	0	42	0	1,843
Isle of Wight	Ryde North West	2,573	Isle of Wight East	989	464	52	62	365	0	43	0	1,975
Isle of Wight	Ryde South	2,841	Isle of Wight East	886	896	65	72	427	0	46	0	2,392
Isle of Wight	Ryde West	2,614	Isle of Wight East	933	530	184	32	374	0	51	0	2,104
Isle of Wight	Sandown North	2,294	Isle of Wight East	773	463	42	57	318	0	37	0	1,690
Isle of Wight	Sandown South	2,807	Isle of Wight East	1,184	498	51	64	368	0	42	0	2,207
Isle of Wight	Shanklin Central	2,660	Isle of Wight East	1,092	396	43	31	310	0	39	0	1,911
Isle of Wight	Shanklin South	2,721	Isle of Wight East	1,140	394	42	32	302	0	41	0	1,951
Isle of Wight	Totland	2,287	Isle of Wight West	833	308	32	50	290	0	50	0	1,563
Isle of Wight	Ventnor East	2,265	Isle of Wight East	783	402	51	55	326	0	43	0	1,660
Isle of Wight	Ventnor West	2,325	Isle of Wight East	792	388	30	49	281	0	46	0	1,586
Isle of Wight	West Wight	2,694	Isle of Wight West	1,081	288	40	48	300	0	40	0	1,797
Isle of Wight	Whippingham and Osborne	3,072	Isle of Wight East	1,168	507	60	31	367	0	63	0	2,196
Isle of Wight	Wootton Bridge	2,705	Isle of Wight East	986	350	122	56	331	0	38	0	1,883
	Total	105,448		38,189	17,120	2,739	1,922	12,915	0	1,593	0	74,478

The full details of these calculations are given on the Isle of Wight seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Isle of Wight West

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Isle of Wight West
Isle of Wight	Carisbrooke	2,624	Isle of Wight	1,043	332	56	24	278	0	33	0	1,766
Isle of Wight	Central Wight	2,686	Isle of Wight	1,066	246	30	42	405	0	18	0	1,807
Isle of Wight	Chale, Niton and Whitwell	2,200	Isle of Wight	921	273	23	35	208	0	20	0	1,480
Isle of Wight	Cowes Medina	3,312	Isle of Wight	1,036	600	93	32	417	0	49	0	2,227
Isle of Wight	Cowes North	2,466	Isle of Wight	985	282	60	43	263	0	26	0	1,659
Isle of Wight	Cowes South and Northwood	3,040	Isle of Wight	1,254	345	62	28	317	0	41	0	2,047
Isle of Wight	Cowes West and Gurnard	2,805	Isle of Wight	1,018	367	71	27	351	0	53	0	1,887
Isle of Wight	Freshwater North	2,052	Isle of Wight	816	268	27	40	203	0	28	0	1,382
Isle of Wight	Freshwater South	2,287	Isle of Wight	789	329	42	47	286	0	45	0	1,538
Isle of Wight	Newport Central	3,136	Isle of Wight	1,008	599	63	56	341	0	43	0	2,110
Isle of Wight	Newport East	2,543	Isle of Wight	577	773	43	47	248	0	23	0	1,711
Isle of Wight	Newport North	2,626	Isle of Wight	893	453	56	48	286	0	30	0	1,766
Isle of Wight	Newport South	3,159	Isle of Wight	1,172	475	69	30	337	0	42	0	2,125
Isle of Wight	Newport West	2,619	Isle of Wight	962	359	59	52	300	0	30	0	1,762
Isle of Wight	Parkhurst	3,052	Isle of Wight	968	436	186	67	360	0	35	0	2,052
Isle of Wight	Totland	2,324	Isle of Wight	833	308	32	50	290	0	50	0	1,563
Isle of Wight	West Wight	2,672	Isle of Wight	1,081	288	40	48	300	0	40	0	1,797
	Total	45,603		16,422	6,733	1,012	716	5,190	0	606	0	30,679

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Isle of Wight West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Unknown (new seat) (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	45,603
Turnout:	67.3%

Isle of Wight West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Isle of Wight West: Overview

Introduction

Calculation method

Isle of Wight West: Map

List of old seats forming part of Isle of Wight West

Old seat: Isle of Wight

New seat: Isle of Wight West